Economic research firm e-forecasting.com today announced that the Asia Pacific Semiconductor Chip Sales leading indicator edged up 0.4% in October to a reading of 326.9, after going down 3.4% in September. The index was set to average 100 in 2000.
The indicator, comparable to the company’s other global regional semiconductor industry indicators for North America, Japan and Europe, is a forward-looking composite index that forecasts six months ahead, on average, business activity in the region for semiconductor sales.
The six-month growth rate is commonly used in business cycle analysis for both signaling impending turning points in business activity and as a recession monitor. The semiconductor leading indicator’s six month growth rate was negative 15.3% in October 2011, after recording a six month growth rate of negative 16.3% in September. Consecutive positive values in the six-month growth rate predict an end to an economic recession and the beginning of an upcoming expansion.
The European demand component of our Asia Pacific semiconductor industry leading indicator again was the component that contributed the most negatively in October.
Five of the six components that make up the leading indicator for semiconductor sales in the Asia Pacific market improved in October.
- Maria Simos is CEO, e-forecasting com